like Judd, YNOT News Editor-in-Chief. He’s straight-up and to the point.

“Oz,” he told me, “For your next YNOT News article, I want to hear your mid-year prognostications and predictions about the adult industry.like Judd, YNOT News Editor-in-Chief. He’s straight-up and to the point.

“Oz,” he told me, “For your next YNOT News article, I want to hear your mid-year prognostications and predictions about the adult industry. Something ballsy, off the wall, like only you can do it.”

“Well, Judd,” I replied, “that might stir up the hornet’s nest a bit. Are you sure?”

“Do it,” he reiterated. “I look forward to reading your article. Peace, brother!” And just like that, he was gone in a flash… electronically, of course. Judd’s a fast mover; publishing the world’s best weekly adult webmaster publication every week keeps him busier than a one-legged man in an asskicking contest. (Editor’s Note: I had no idea Oz would write that and he’d kick my ass if I edited that part.)

So here I am before you, gentle reader, ready to drop a few bombs and cause a ruckus. Or, maybe not. A gentler, kinder, more mild-mannered Ozolicious? We’ll see… here are my three ‘mid-year’ predictions for the adult industry.

PREDICTION #1: A CONTINUING SHIFT AWAY FROM PAY-PER-TRIAL TO PAY-PER-‘ACTIVE MEMBER’

CyberErotica did it. IGallery did it. CEN did it. That accounts for 3 of the ‘movers and shakers’ of the sponsor world right there; these behemoths have started experimenting and/or heavily promoting their pay-per-active programs. And many others are following suit. Why not? Doesn’t bother me a bit, and I don’t think it should be a problem for the free site webmasters either. I know the common cry… pay-per-active doesn’t pay as much as pay-per-trial. Well, maybe. But let’s be realistic. The only way our traffic matrix works in this industry is if eveyone involved makes money – including the webmaster and the sponsor. Changes like these are natural. They’re not revolutionary; they’re evolutionary. Even if we webmasters make twenty cents on the dollar of our profits in 1997 (if any of you remember back that far…) this business is still extraordinarily profitable. Things change … pay-per-active helps the sponsors fight fraud, stay profitable, and there’s less risk for all involved. Embrace it and understand it. Besides, it’s the future. Watch for this trend to continue throughout 2001.

PREDICTION #2: LESS HARDCORE, MORE CENSORED IMAGES

I’m happy to note that a lot of my contemporaries in this business have voluntarily begun toning down their hardcore XXX adult websites. I’m seeing warning pages at the top domain level, well-censored images, tamer sex acts being portrayed, and so on. If the customer’s age has not been verified, you should not be showing uncensored images… period. I’m well aware that for free site webmasters this concept might even seem laughable. We all know there’s a ton of free, hardcore porn floating around out there. Well, let me remind you that just because everyone is doing it doesn’t mean it’s any safer for YOU to do it. The new Presidential Administration is no friend of adult entertainment. Besides, isn’t it common sense that if we censor and restrict the free porn, more customers will buy memberships? If you’re a free site webmaster, I strongly encourage you to give this issue very serious consideration. In the end the choice is yours, but in my experience, a legal website means you sleep more soundly at night … and enjoy higher profits! It’s truly a win-win situation. I predict we’re going to continue along this path in 2001.

PREDICTION #3: RESOURCE MANIA IS GOING TO END

Some time in early 2000, everyone had the great idea that webmaster resources were a great new way to make money if the porn sites weren’t paying the bills, thus we saw a new industry sub-niche grow to gargantuan proportions. There are literally thousands of adult webmaster resources now available to the aspiring adult webmaster. This is and of itself wouldn’t necessarily be a problem but for the fact that the vast majority of these resources suck, or are pale imitations of the ‘real thing.’ I’m not pointing any fingers! I welcome resources which bring something new and worthwhile to the table. I also welcome competition (BRING IT ON!), but unfortunately for webmasters and advertisers which are looking to maximize sponsorship dollars, the end result is confusion. We’ve already seen the ‘new resource’ trend slow dramatically, and I predict it’s going to start shrinking as the resources who don’t have a solid value proposition begin to die on the vine in the second half of 2001.

Okay … I didn’t hold back … that’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it! Only time will prove me right or wrong. We’ll see! In the meantime, I still strongly believe the adult industry is as good an opportunity in 2001 as it was in 1995. The opportunities are simply different. Open your eyes and you’ll be amazed at what you’ll find!

See you next week at YNOT News.