GENEVA, SWITZERLAND — The number of cellular phone subscribers worldwide is likely to reach the 4 billion mark before the end of this year, International Telecommunication Union Secretary-General Hamadoun Touré told a Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) conference in New York.The ITU is the leading United Nations agency for information and communication technologies. The MDGs were adopted following the United Nations Millennium Declaration by UN Member states in 2000, representing an international commitment to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, achieve universal primary education, promote gender equality, reduce child mortality, improve maternal health, combat epidemics such as HIV/AIDS and malaria, ensure environmental sustainability, and develop a global partnership for development that would include making available the benefits of information and communication technologies (ICTs).

Since the turn of the century, the growth of mobile cellular subscribers has been impressive, with year-on-year growth averaging 24-percent between 2000 and 2008, Touré said. In 2000 mobile penetration stood at only 12-percent, but by early 2008 it surpassed the 50-percent mark. It is estimated to reach about 61-percent by the end of the year.

“The fact that 4 billion subscribers have been registered worldwide indicates that it is technically feasible to connect the world to the benefits of ICTs and that it is a viable business opportunity,” Touré told the conference. “Clearly, ICTs have the potential to act as catalysts to achieve the 2015 targets of the MDGs.”

While the data shows impressive growth, ITU stressed that the figures need to be interpreted carefully. Although in theory a 61-percent penetration rate suggests at least every second person could be using a mobile phone, this is not necessarily the case. In fact, the statistics reflect the number of subscriptions, not persons, Touré noted.

Double counting takes place when people have multiple subscriptions. Also, operators’ methods for counting active prepaid subscribers vary and often inflate the actual number of people who use mobile phones.

On the other hand, some subscribers, particularly in developing countries, share their mobile phones with others. This often has been cited as the success story of Grameen Phone in rural Bangladesh, for instance.

In addition, ITU noted that despite high growth rates in the mobile sector, major differences in mobile penetration rates remain between regions and within countries.

The impressive growth in the number of mobile cellular subscribers is due mainly to developments in some of the world’s largest markets, Touré said. The BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to have an increasingly important impact in terms of population, resources and global gross domestic product share. Those economies alone are expected to account for more than 1.3 billion mobile subscribers by the end of 2008.

China surpassed the 600 million subscribers mark by mid-2008, representing by far the world’s largest mobile market. India had some 296 million mobile subscribers by the end of July 2008, but with a relatively low penetration rate of about 20-percent. India offers great potential for growth, however, Touré noted.

Market liberalization has played a key role in spreading mobile telephony by driving competition and bringing down prices. India’s mobile operators increasingly compete for low-income customers, and average-revenue-per-user in India has reached around $7 U.S., one of the lowest in the world.

ITU recently published two regional reports for Africa and Asia, which indicate how mobile telephony is changing peoples’ lives. Apart from providing communication services to previously unconnected areas, mobile applications have opened the doors to innovations such as m-commerce to access pricing information for rural farmers and the use of mobile phones to pay for goods and services. While mobile broadband subscribers remain concentrated in the developed world, a number of developing countries — including Indonesia, the Maldives, the Philippines and Sri Lanka in Asia-Pacific — have launched 3G networks.

Broadband uptake enables a range of socially desirable and valuable online services, specifically targeting the MDGs in areas such as e-government, e-education and e-health. The use of broadband technologies can help overcome many of the basic development challenges faced by developing countries, Touré concluded.